Trends in the Polls…

I follow a website named Real Clear Politics where a number of polls are aggregated into one result theoretically providing a more reasonable/reliable estimate of the relative position of candidates.

Today that poll has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 45.0% to 43.9%.  This result is tightening and if this trend continues, Donald Trump seems likely to take the lead.  He has polled higher than Hillary in some polls and she has polled higher than him in some polls. Real Clear Politics (RCP) tends to meld the main polling results to damp down any inherent distortions favoring one or the other candidates.

We are, of course, about to witness the first debate between these two candidates.  This is a big deal for both campaigns.  Hillary Clinton has to be hoping for a Donald Trump meltdown since she knows she is trending downward in her own right.  She will hope that she can avoid any big ‘boo-boos’ and that she can provoke Trump to make a fool of himself through bombast or foolish answers or both.

Donald Trump, with a much more efficiently managed campaign than he began with, knows he is trending in the right direction and will hope to provoke Hillary Clinton into a gaffe, or several, which will only accelerate his move into the leading position nationally. If Trump can perform without acting like a bully, and without a major foul-up on facts, I suspect he will overtake Hillary in the RCP poll within a day or two of the debate.  Trump is a very bright guy and can, I think, be likable if he chooses to be likable.

I suspect that if and when Trump takes the lead in the RCP poll, he will stay in the lead. Hillary will not age well if she is battling from behind.  She’ll get snarkier and more sarcastic, and will simply get to be less and less likable.  Trump will be able to continue as the adult in the race and capitalize on Hillary’s huffing and puffing.

We will elect the lesser damaged of the two candidates in this race.  Neither is the ‘knight in shining armor come to save the day’ but one has to be victorious.  Hillary will become more and more shrill if she falls behind and that will do her in with many voters who are already holding their nose over her candidacy.  I do not think that husband Bill Clinton is going to be a big favorable factor for Hillary.  There is simply too much baggage, none of which is good baggage, associated with this guy.  The international speaking gigs that are poorly camouflaged gift-seeking ventures will not befriend Bill to too many people.  The bimbo eruptions will find their way into the press once again.  The ‘blue dress’ stained in the Oval Office will become top of mind again.

These two people have earned the criticism they reap today.  The Clinton Foundation, which is paying daughter Chelsea $3 MILLION a year, is symbolic of all that is wrong in Clintonland.

A President Hillary Clinton would be worse than what we’ve experienced with President Barack Obama.  Sixteen years of this kind of liberal rule would be a killer for this country and its world position.

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